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Punjab unveils a surplus budget amid revenue doubts.

Good afternoon,

Today’s news: Globally, updates from Iran, Gaza, and the G7. Locally, Punjab unveils a surplus budget amid revenue doubts, parliament blocks solar panel tax, and a massive fire in Karachi’s electronics market.

Grab your chaye, let’s go.

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Around The World

Update from Iran. Israeli warplanes pounded Iran’s capital overnight and into Wednesday as Iran launched a small barrage of missiles at Israel with no reports of casualties. An Iranian official warned Wednesday that any U.S. intervention in the conflict would risk all-out war. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a warning at dawn on social media, telling Israel: “The battle begins.” 

Hours earlier, Trump called the supreme leader an easy target and said that America’s patience is wearing thin. He also demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender. Meanwhile, Trump is growing increasingly warm to using US military assets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, though the sources said he remains open to a diplomatic solution if Iran makes concessions. Live updates here and here.

Update from Gaza. Israeli troops killed at least 70 Palestinians and wounded hundreds as they sought aid in Gaza on Tuesday, firing at them with tank shells, machine guns, and drones. Those casualties are among the 89 Palestinians killed in attacks across the enclave since dawn. 

It was the latest in a sustained wave of carnage since the Israel and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation launched operations to distribute food in the territory three weeks ago. In total, nearly 400 Palestinians have been killed near aid centers since Israel lifted an 11-week total blockade on Gaza.

7’s up. Six of the Group of Seven leaders discussed Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Israel-Iran conflict but failed to reach major agreements on those and many other top issues — closing a summit that was forced to try and show how the wealthy nations’ club might still shape global policy despite the early departure of U.S. President Donald Trump. Here are the five takeaways from the dramatic G7.

What Modi said. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Trump that Delhi will never accept third-party mediation with Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir during a phone call on Tuesday. Modi also made it clear that a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after a four-day conflict in May was achieved through talks between the two militaries and not US mediation. Trump has repeatedly offered to mediate between India and Pakistan to solve the Kashmir issue.

Pakistan

What’s in my bag? Punjab has unveiled a Rs. 5.33 trillion budget for FY2025-26 with a Rs. 740 billion surplus, exceeding its IMF target. This may be intended to offset the federal government’s revenue overstatements and counterbalance Sindh’s deficit budget. Punjab expects Rs. 4.06 trillion in federal transfers. However, skepticism surrounds Punjab’s ability to boost its own revenue, with a Rs. 50.5 billion tax shortfall this year and a projected Rs. 190 billion drop in non-tax revenue.

Total non-federal revenue is set to fall by Rs. 55 billion. The agriculture income tax is expected to raise just Rs. 10.5 billion, far below Sindh’s Rs. 388 billion, hinting at political resistance. Other revenue targets also appear unrealistic. Spending will rise, with a Rs. 57 billion increase in salaries and a 47% jump in development outlay, though still below Punjab’s NFC share. 

No panel penalty. In a rare move, Pakistan’s parliamentary finance committees unanimously rejected the proposed 18% sales tax on imported solar panels, citing concerns over rising electricity costs and the lack of local production, while also opposing increased GST on small cars, calling it unfair to low-income groups. Lawmakers approved some tax reliefs, such as exemptions for aircraft imports linked to PIA’s privatization, but debated other controversial measures, including redefining tax fraud, expanding enforcement powers against illegal cigarette sales, and new restrictions on iron scrap trade. 

Flames & blames. A massive fire at Karachi’s Aamir Electronics Market in Saddar destroyed over 40 shops and warehouses, causing losses exceeding Rs 1 billion. The fire, suspected to be caused by an electrical short circuit or nearby garbage burning, spread rapidly due to a delayed firefighting response and a lack of safety measures. Traders, unable to save goods like batteries and solar panels, are demanding compensation from trade associations and stricter enforcement of fire safety regulations. Fires in Karachi’s commercial markets are becoming increasingly frequent due to outdated wiring, illegal electrical setups, overcrowding, and poor enforcement of building codes.

What Else Is Happening?

🚗Pakistani ride-hailing app Careem will suspend its operations on July 18, 2025, citing economic challenges, increased competition, and investment constraints, though it will continue operating in the country through Careem Technologies, which is developing its “Everything App.”

🌋Dozens of flights to and from the Indonesian resort island of Bali have been cancelled or delayed after one of the country's most active volcanoes, Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki on the island of Flores, erupted on Tuesday.

🛍️Chinese entrepreneur Luo Yonghao utilized an AI digital twin on a six-hour livestream on Baidu’s e-commerce platform, outperforming his human-led streams with over $7M in sales generated during the broadcast.