Good afternoon,

Today’s news: Globally, updates from Gaza, the US, and Iran. Locally, Pakistan’s default risk plunges 22%, first rare earth shipment headed to the US, the FO seeks release of ex-senator held by Israel, and a fresh flood alert issued.

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Around The World

Updates on Gaza. Israel and Hamas are due to begin indirect talks in Egypt today, aimed at implementing Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan, as Hamas agreed to parts of Trump's 20-point plan but hasn't accepted all the conditions. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on Gaza have continued, with the civil defence saying 24 Palestinians had been killed in 24 hours.

International activists deported from Israel after joining an intercepted Gaza aid flotilla have given further accounts of mistreatment by guards during their detention, as some 450 participants in the flotilla were arrested when Israeli forces intercepted the boats, which were seeking to deliver aid to Palestinians in the besieged territory.

Additionally, hundreds of thousands of people poured onto the streets across Europe, demanding a ceasefire to Israel’s war on Gaza that has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians and left the enclave on the brink of famine. The protest took place in the Netherlands, where about 250,000 people filled Amsterdam’s Museum Square before marching through the city centre. 

Uncivil liberties. A US federal judge on Sunday temporarily blocked the Trump administration from sending any National Guard troops to Portland, as the administration stepped up attempts to send out-of-state National Guard troops to the city after the judge earlier denied mobilizing the Oregon National Guard. The White House then announced authorization for hundreds of National Guard members to be sent to Chicago instead.

These developments come against the backdrop of continuing protests in Chicago and Portland against federal law enforcement carrying out Trump’s sweeping immigration enforcement agenda. Trump has argued military deployments are necessary to protect federal immigration personnel and property amid “violent protests” carried out by “domestic terrorists.” This is strongly disputed by Democratic state officials and locals who say they don’t want or need federal help.

Private practice. Iran’s foreign minister has declared that cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog is “no longer relevant” after Western countries reinstated international sanctions on the country. The agreement had laid out a framework for renewed inspections and monitoring after Tehran suspended cooperation following Israeli and US attacks on its nuclear facilities in June. 

However, the deal lost significance after Britain, France, and Germany, all signatories to the 2015 nuclear accord, triggered the return of UN sanctions, accusing Iran of breaching its commitments, claims which Tehran has rejected. Some Iranian lawmakers have suggested withdrawing from the NPT altogether, though President Masoud Pezeshkian has maintained that Iran will remain committed to its treaty obligations.

Pakistan

It got better. Pakistan has recorded one of the steepest declines in sovereign default risk globally, ranking second after Turkiye among emerging markets. Its Credit Default Swap (CDS) implied default probability has fallen by 22%—or 2,200 basis points—over the past 15 months. A CDS measures the cost of insuring a country’s debt against default. The higher the CDS, the greater the perceived risk that the country won’t repay its loans. 

A sharp drop means investors now see Pakistan as less likely to default and are more confident in its economic stability. The improvement has been attributed to macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, timely debt servicing, adherence to the $7 billion IMF program, and positive rating actions by global agencies. 

Core memory. Pakistan has dispatched its first-ever shipment of enriched rare earth elements and critical minerals, including antimony, copper concentrate, neodymium, and praseodymium, to the US, marking the start of a $500 million partnership between US Strategic Metals (USSM) and Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization (FWO). The landmark deal establishes a framework for joint development of the entire mineral value chain, from exploration to refining, and positions Pakistan as an emerging player in the global critical minerals market.

Standing on business. Pakistan’s Foreign Office said it is working with Jordan and other international partners to secure the safe evacuation of former JI senator Mushtaq Ahmad Khan, who was detained by Israeli forces after they intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla, a 45-vessel aid mission to Gaza. The FO confirmed Mushtaq is safe in Israeli custody and will be presented before a court before deportation. PM Sharif has called for the immediate release of all detainees and tasked Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar with leading repatriation efforts.

Fresh forecast. The PDMA has issued a fresh flood alert, warning of rising river levels. Authorities have been directed to stay on high alert, strengthen embankments, and mobilize resources as heavy rains continue. Citizens are urged to follow safety advisories, with the wet spell expected to ease within 36 hours, though monitoring will remain active.

What Else Is Happening?

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