Good afternoon,

Today’s news: Globally, US-Iran nuclear tensions, China-US trade talks, and updates from Syria. Locally, inflation hits a record low, JD Vance urges restraint after the Pahalgam attack, and Azad Kashmir faces flood risks from rising Jhelum River waters.

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Around The World

Big green monster. A fourth round of Iran-US talks over Tehran's nuclear program has been postponed due to logistical and technical reasons. It came as US President Donald Trump threatened action against those buying Iranian oil or petrochemicals on Thursday, after Washington introduced fresh sanctions this week on companies it said had links to Tehran. 

Later, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also warned that Iranian support of the Houthis, a Yemen-based armed group, could result in US retaliation.

The administration of President Donald Trump has said it aims to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, though Tehran has long denied armament as a goal. It frames its nuclear program as a civilian energy project. 

Smoke signals. China’s Commerce Ministry said Friday that it is evaluating multiple approaches by the Trump administration for trade talks, but the steep tariffs of 145% imposed by Washington must go. Beijing’s remarks come after reports that the Trump administration had proactively reached out through multiple channels.

Businesses and investors have been anxiously waiting for signs that Washington and Beijing will ease their steep tariffs amid fears of serious damage to the global economy. The International Monetary Fund last month lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in January, while JPMorgan Chase has put the likelihood of a US recession this year at 60%.

Update from Syria. Israel’s military has launched air strikes near Syria’s presidential palace in Damascus after accusing the Syrian authorities of failing to protect the country’s Druze minority from sectarian violence. The attack early on Friday was the second of its kind by Israel this week and is seen as sending a strong message to Syria’s transitional government led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa. 

More than 100 people were killed this week during fighting between pro-government forces and Druze fighters in Syria. The violence has been condemned as a “genocidal campaign” by Syria’s Druze spiritual leader, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, who called for an immediate intervention by “international forces to maintain peace and prevent the continuation of these crimes.”

Pakistan

Going steady. The inflation rate dropped to an all-time low of 0.3% year-on-year (YoY) in April 2025, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). This marks a further decline from 0.7% in March, and is significantly lower than the 19.4% recorded in April 2024 for urban areas. The sharp drop is largely attributed to falling food and electricity prices and reflects a broader trend of easing inflation. So far this fiscal year, average inflation for the first 10 months of FY25 (10MFY25) stands at 4.73%, a steep decline from 25.97% in 10MFY24.

The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which is scheduled to meet on Monday, is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12%, following a cumulative 1,000 basis points cut since June 2024. The central bank had paused further cuts in March, citing inflationary risks, including external pressures such as rising US tariffs.

Rising tides. US Vice President JD Vance expressed hope that India’s response to the Pahalgam attack would not escalate into a wider regional conflict. Meanwhile, water levels in the Jhelum River have surged dangerously in Muzaffarabad, Azad Kashmir, after India released excess water amid rising tensions and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. The river has risen by up to 10 feet, putting over 10,000 people at risk. With critical flood data cut off, uncertainty is growing.

What Else Is Happening?

🤳Meta is launching a stand-alone AI assistant app powered by Llama, featuring a Discover feed to showcase user interactions and prompt ideas, which builds on Meta’s prior AI integrations into Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. 

🥸The CIA has released new YouTube videos aimed at luring Chinese officials to spy for the United States, tapping into disillusionment within China’s vast bureaucracy and fear of leader Xi Jinping’s relentless anti-corruption purge.