Good afternoon,

Today’s news: Globally, the Liberal party won Canadian federal elections, a blackout in Europe, and Putin’s ceasefire. Locally, The IMF Executive Board to meet on May 9 for Extended Fund Facility (EFF) review, government halts Indus canal project amid protests, and tensions continue with India.

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Around The World

O Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won Canada’s federal election on Monday, capping a stunning turnaround fueled by Trump’s annexation threats and trade war. After polls closed, the Liberals were projected to win more of Parliament’s 343 seats than the Conservatives. It remains too close to call if they will win an outright majority of at least 172 or would need to rely on one of the smaller parties to pass legislation.

In his victory speech, Carney told supporters that "President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us - that will never ever happen." The Liberal Party was well behind in the polls just three months ago, before Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as leader, and US President Trump upended relations and became the defining issue of the campaign. Live updates here.

Let there be (no) light. Major power outages across large areas of Spain and Portugal, as well as parts of southern France, knocked out traffic lights and disrupted public transportation and airport operations on Monday. Critical infrastructure was heavily impacted. Metro systems in Madrid, Barcelona, and Lisbon were shut down, while major airports such as Madrid-Barajas and Lisbon’s Humberto Delgado faced significant delays and partial closures. Officials did not say what caused the outages, but several denied any foul play.

Time-out. Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared a unilateral three-day ceasefire in Ukraine, saying that all military actions in Ukraine would be suspended from May 8 to May 11 based on humanitarian considerations. The move met with skepticism from Ukrainian officials, who demanded that the Kremlin immediately accept a longer truce proposal from the United States that it has so far rejected. The truce would coincide with Russia’s World War II Victory Day commemorations on May 9 and the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Pakistan

Agree and adapt. The IMF Executive Board will meet on May 9 to assess the first review of Pakistan’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and consider a new $1.3 billion loan under a climate resilience program. This follows a staff-level agreement reached last month after a mission to Karachi and Islamabad. If approved, the meeting will unlock $1 billion from the ongoing bailout, raising total disbursements to $2 billion and initiating a 28-month climate-focused arrangement aimed at helping Pakistan adapt to growing environmental risks.

Sindh’s fight for the Indus. The Council of Common Interests (CCI) has endorsed the federal government’s decision to halt the controversial plan to build six new canals on the Indus River until a “mutual understanding” is reached among provinces. The move comes after weeks of protests, legal sit-ins, and economic disruption in Sindh, which strongly opposes the initiative to divert water for the Cholistan region. 

The CCI, with all four chief ministers present, also withdrew prior approvals and directed federal bodies to consult all stakeholders. A new federal-provincial committee will be formed to develop a unified roadmap on water and agriculture policy, aligned with the 1991 Water Accord and 2018 Water Policy. The project’s suspension comes amid tensions over India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, prompting the CCI to condemn New Delhi’s actions and express national solidarity. 

War games. The Pakistan Army shot down an Indian surveillance quadcopter on April 29 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir’s Bhimber district, claiming it violated Pakistan’s airspace along the Line of Control (LoC). Security officials said the drone was attempting surveillance in the Manawar sector, but was intercepted and destroyed. Meanwhile, cross-border shelling has resumed for five consecutive nights. At the United Nations, Pakistan has asserted it has credible evidence that the March 11 hijacking of the Jaffar Express was externally sponsored by regional adversaries, pointing to India as the primary backer of terrorism in Balochistan.

What Else Is Happening?

✈️A US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet has been lost at sea after it fell overboard from an aircraft carrier while being towed on board. Initial reports indicate that the carrier made a hard turn to evade Houthi fire, which contributed to the fighter jet falling overboard.

🤥OpenAI is working to fix GPT-4o after users called out the AI's excessive flattery and tendency to agree with users, even their potentially harmful ideas. OpenAI had released the updated 4o last week, promising better memory saving, problem solving, and personality and intelligence improvements.